1. How natural are natural hazards?
2. The environment, natural hazards, and sustainable development
A widely accepted definition characterizes natural hazards as "those elements of the physical environment, harmful to man and caused by forces extraneous to him."1/ More specifically, in this document, the term "natural hazard" refers to all atmospheric, hydrologic, geologic (especially seismic and volcanic), and wildfire phenomena that, because of their location, severity, and frequency, have the potential to affect humans, their structures, or their activities adversely. The qualifier "natural" eliminates such exclusively manmade phenomena as war, pollution, and chemical contamination. Hazards to human beings not necessarily related to the physical environment, such as infectious disease, are also excluded from consideration here. Figure 3 presents a simplified list of natural hazards, and the boxes on the following pages briefly summarize the nature of geologic hazards, flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes, and hazards in arid and semi-arid areas.
1/ Burton, I., Robert W. Kates and Gilbert F. White. The Environment as Hazard (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978).
Notwithstanding the term "natural," a natural hazard has an element of human involvement. A physical event, such as a volcanic eruption, that does not affect human beings is a natural phenomenon but not a natural hazard. A natural phenomenon that occurs in a populated area is a hazardous event. A hazardous event that causes unacceptably large numbers of fatalities and/or overwhelming property damage is a natural disaster. In areas where there are no human interests, natural phenomena do not constitute hazards nor do they result in disasters. This definition is thus at odds with the perception of natural hazards as unavoidable havoc wreaked by the unrestrained forces of nature. It shifts the burden of cause from purely natural processes to the concurrent presence of human activities and natural events.
Although humans can do little or nothing to change the incidence or intensity of most natural phenomena, they have an important role to play in ensuring that natural events are not converted into disasters by their own actions. It is important to understand that human intervention can increase the frequency and severity of natural hazards. For example, when the toe of a landslide is removed to make room for a settlement, the earth can move again and bury the settlement. Human intervention may also cause natural hazards where none existed before. Volcanoes erupt periodically, but it is not until the rich soils formed on their ejecta are occupied by farms and human settlements that they are considered hazardous. Finally, human intervention reduces the mitigating effect of natural ecosystems. Destruction of coral reefs, which removes the shore's first line of defense against ocean currents and storm surges, is a clear example of an intervention that diminishes the ability of an ecosystem to protect itself. An extreme case of destructive human intervention into an ecosystem is desertification, which, by its very definition, is a human-induced "natural" hazard.
Figure 3 - POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS NATURAL PHENOMENA
Erosion and sedimentation
Tephra (ash, cinders, lapilli)
Projectiles and lateral blasts
Earthquakes are caused by the sudden release of slowly accumulated strain energy along a fault in the earth's crust. Earthquakes and volcanoes occur most commonly at the collision zone between tectonic plates. Earthquakes represent a particularly severe threat due to the irregular time intervals between events, lack of adequate forecasting, and the hazards associated with these:
- Ground shaking is a direct hazard to any structure located near the earthquake's center. Structural failure takes many human lives in densely populated areas.
- Faulting, or breaches of the surface material, occurs as the separation of bedrock along lines of weakness.
- Landslides occur because of ground shaking in areas having relatively steep topography and poor slope stability.
- Liquefaction of gently sloping unconsolidated material can be triggered by ground shaking. Flows and lateral spreads (liquefaction phenomena) are among the most destructive geologic hazards.
- Subsidence or surface depressions result from the settling of loose or unconsolidated sediment. Subsidence occurs in waterlogged soils, fill, alluvium, and other materials that are prone to settle.
- Tsunamis or seismic sea waves, usually generated by seismic activity under the ocean floor, cause flooding in coastal areas and can affect areas thousands of kilometers from the earthquake center.
Volcanoes are perforations in the earth's crust through which molten rock and gases escape to the surface. Volcanic hazards stem from two classes of eruptions:
- Explosive eruptions which originate in the rapid dissolution and expansion of gas from the molten rock as it nears the earth's surface. Explosions pose a risk by scattering rock blocks, fragments, and lava at varying distances from the source.
- Effusive eruptions where material flow rather than explosions is the major hazard. Flows vary in nature (mud, ash, lava) and quantity and may originate from multiple sources. Flows are governed by gravity, surrounding topography, and material viscosity.
Hazards associated with volcanic eruptions include lava flows, falling ash and projectiles, mudflows, and toxic gases. Volcanic activity may also trigger other natural hazardous events including local tsunamis, deformation of the landscape, floods when lakes are breached or when streams and rivers are dammed, and tremor-provoked landslides.
The term landslide includes slides, falls, and flows of unconsolidated materials. Landslides can be triggered by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, soil saturated by heavy rains or groundwater rise, and river undercutting. Earthquake shaking of saturated soils creates particularly dangerous conditions. Although landslides are highly localized, they can be particularly hazardous due to their frequency of occurrence. Classes of landslide include:
- Rockfalls, which are characterized by free-falling rocks from overlying cliffs. These often collect at the cliff base in the form of talus slopes which may pose an additional risk.
- Slides and avalanches, a displacement of overburden due to shear failure along a structural feature. If the displacement occurs in surface material without total deformation it is called a slump.
- Flows and lateral spreads, which occur in recent unconsolidated material associated with a shallow water table. Although associated with gentle topography, these liquefaction phenomena can travel significant distances from their origin.
The impact of these events depends on the specific nature of the landslide. Rockfalls are obvious dangers to life and property but, in general, they pose only a localized threat due to their limited areal influence. In contrast, slides, avalanches, flows, and lateral spreads, often having great areal extent, can result in massive loss of lives and property. Mudflows, associated with volcanic eruptions, can travel at great speed from their point of origin and are one of the most destructive volcanic hazards.
Two types of flooding can be distinguished: (1) land-borne floods, or river flooding, caused by excessive run-off brought on by heavy rains, and (2) sea-borne floods, or coastal flooding, caused by storm surges, often exacerbated by storm run-off from the upper watershed. Tsunamis are a special type of sea-borne flood.
a. Coastal flooding
Storm surges are an abnormal rise in sea water level associated with hurricanes and other storms at sea. Surges result from strong on-shore winds and/or intense low pressure cells and ocean storms. Water level is controlled by wind, atmospheric pressure, existing astronomical tide, waves and swell, local coastal topography and bathymetry, and the storm's proximity to the coast.
Most often, destruction by storm surge is attributable to:
- Wave impact and the physical shock on objects associated with the passing of the wave front.
- Hydrostatic/dynamic forces and the effects of water lifting and carrying objects. The most significant damage often results from the direct impact of waves on fixed structures. Indirect impacts include flooding and undermining of major infrastructure such as highways and railroads.
Flooding of deltas and other low-lying coastal areas is exacerbated by the influence of tidal action, storm waves, and frequent channel shifts.
b. River flooding
Land-borne floods occur when the capacity of stream channels to conduct water is exceeded and water overflows banks. Floods are natural phenomena, and may be expected to occur at irregular intervals on all stream and rivers. Settlement of floodplain areas is a major cause of flood damage.
Tsunamis are long-period waves generated by disturbances such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and undersea landslides. The crests of these waves can exceed heights of 25 meters on reaching shallow water. The unique characteristics of tsunamis (wave lengths commonly exceeding 100 km, deep-ocean velocities of up to 700 km/hour, and small crest heights in deep water) make their detection and monitoring difficult. Characteristics of coastal flooding caused by tsunamis are the same as those of storm surges.
Hurricanes are tropical depressions which develop into severe storms characterized by winds directed inward in a spiraling pattern toward the center. They are generated over warm ocean water at low latitudes and are particularly dangerous due to their destructive potential, large zone of influence, spontaneous generation, and erratic movement. Phenomena which are associated with hurricanes are:
- Winds exceeding 64 knots (74 mi/hr or 119 km/hr), the definition of hurricane force. Damage results from the wind's direct impact on fixed structures and from wind-borne objects.
- Heavy rainfall which commonly precedes and follows hurricanes for up to several days. The quantity of rainfall is dependent on the amount of moisture in the air, the speed of the hurricane's movement, and its size. On land, heavy rainfall can saturate soils and cause flooding because of excess runoff (land-borne flooding); it can cause landslides because of added weight and lubrication of surface material; and/or it can damage crops by weakening support for the roots.
- Storm surge (explained above), which, especially when combined with high tides, can easily flood low-lying areas that are not protected.
All this is the key to developing effective vulnerability reduction measures: if human activities can cause or aggravate the destructive effects of natural phenomena, they can also eliminate or reduce them.
The work of the OAS/DRDE is focused upon helping countries plan spatial development and prepare compatible investment projects at a prefeasibility level. In a general sense, these tasks may be called "environmental planning"; they consist of diagnosing the needs of an area and identifying the resources available to it, then using this information to formulate an integrated development strategy composed of sectoral investment projects. This process uses methods of systems analysis and conflict management to arrive at an equitable distribution of costs and benefits, and in doing so it links the quality of human life to environmental quality. In the planning work, then, the environment-the structure and function of the ecosystems that surround and support human life-represents the conceptual framework. In the context of economic development, the environment is that composite of goods, services, and constraints offered by surrounding ecosystems. An ecosystem is a coherent set of interlocking relationships between and among living things and their environments. For example, a forest is an ecosystem that offers goods, including trees that provide lumber, fuel, and fruit. The forest may also provide services in the form of water storage and flood control, wildlife habitat, nutrient storage, and recreation. The forest, however, like any physical resource, also has its constraints. It requires a fixed period of time in which to reproduce itself, and it is vulnerable to wildfires and blights. These vulnerabilities, or natural hazards, constrain the development potential of the forest ecosystem.
Hazards in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas
Desertification, or resource degradation in arid lands that creates desert conditions, results from interrelated and interdependent sets of actions, usually brought on by drought combined with human and animal population pressure. Droughts are prolonged dry periods in natural climatic cycles. The cycles of dry and wet periods pose serious problems for pastoralists and farmers who gamble on these cycles. During wet periods, the sizes of herds are increased and cultivation is extended into drier areas. Later, drought destroys human activities which have been extended beyond the limits of a region's carrying capacity.
Overgrazing is a frequent practice in dry lands and is the single activity that most contributes to desertification. Dry-land farming refers to rain-fed agriculture in semiarid regions where water is the principal factor limiting crop production. Grains and cereals are the most frequently grown crops. The nature of dry-land farming makes it a hazardous practice which can only succeed if special conservation measures such as stubble mulching, summer fallow, strip cropping, and clean tillage are followed. Desertified dry lands in Latin America can usually be attributed to some combination of exploitative land management and natural climate fluctuations.
b. Erosion and Sedimentation
Soil erosion and the resulting sedimentation constitute major natural hazards that produce social and economic losses of great consequence. Erosion occurs in all climatic conditions, but is discussed as an arid zone hazard because together with salinization, it is a major proximate cause of desertification. Erosion by water or wind occurs on any sloping land regardless of its use. Land uses which increase the risk of soil erosion include overgrazing, burning and/or exploitation of forests, certain agricultural practices, roads and trails, and urban development. Soil erosion has three major effects: loss of support and nutrients necessary for plant growth; downstream damage from sediments generated by erosion; and depletion of water storage capacity, because of soil loss and sedimentation of streams and reservoirs, which results in reduced natural stream flow regulation.
Stream and reservoir sedimentation is often the root of many water management problems. Sediment movement and subsequent deposition in reservoirs and river beds reduces the useful lives of water storage reservoirs, aggravates flood water damage, impedes navigation, degrades water quality, damages crops and infrastructure, and results in excessive wear of turbines and pumps.
Saline water is common in dry regions, and soils derived from chemically weathered marine deposits (such as shale) are often saline. Usually, however, saline soils have received salts transported by water from other locations. Salinization most often occurs on irrigated land as the result of poor water control, and the primary source of salts impacting soils is surface and/or ground water. Salts accumulate because of flooding of low-tying lands, evaporation from depressions having no outlets, and the rise of ground water close to soil surfaces. Salinization results in a decline in soil fertility or even a total loss of land for agricultural purposes. In certain instances, farm land abandoned because of salinity problems may be subjected to water and wind erosion and become desertified.
Inexpensive water usually results in over-watering. In dry regions, salt-bearing ground water is frequently the major water resource. The failure to properly price water from irrigation projects can create a great demand for Such projects and result in misuse of available water, causing waterlogging and salinization.
A survey of environmental constraints, whether focused on urban, rural, or wildland ecosystems, includes (1) the nature and severity of resource degradation; (2) the underlying causes of the degradation, which include the impact of both natural phenomena and human use; and (3) the range of feasible economic, social, institutional, policy, and financial interventions designed to retard or alleviate degradation. In this sense, too, natural hazards must be considered an integral aspect of the development planning process.
Recent development literature sometimes makes a distinction between "environmental projects" and "development projects." "Environmental projects" include objectives such as sanitation, reforestation, and flood control, while "development projects" may focus on potable water supplies, forestry, and irrigation. But the project-by-project approach is clearly an ineffective means of promoting socioeconomic well-being. Development projects, if they are to be sustainable, must incorporate sound environmental management. By definition, this means that they must be designed to improve the quality of life and to protect or restore environmental quality at the same time and must also ensure that resources will not be degraded and that the threat of natural hazards will not be exacerbated. In short, good natural hazard management is good development project management.
Indeed, in high-risk areas, sustainable development is only possible to the degree that development planning decisions, in both the public and private sectors, address the destructive potential of natural hazards. This approach is particularly relevant in post-disaster situations, when tremendous pressures are brought to bear on local, national, and international agencies to replace, frequently on the same site, destroyed facilities. It is at such times that the pressing need for natural hazard and risk assessment information and its incorporation into the development planning process become most evident.
To address hazard management, specific action must be incorporated into the various stages of the integrated development planning study: first, an assessment of the presence and effect of natural events on the goods and services provided by natural resources in the plan area; second, estimates of the potential impact of natural events on development activities, and third, the inclusion of measures to reduce vulnerability in the proposed development activities. Within this framework, "lifeline" networks should be identified: components or critical segments of production facilities, infrastructure, and support systems for human settlements, which should be as nearly invulnerable as possible and be recognized as priority elements for rehabilitation following a disaster.