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Figure 3. Total number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees (2015-2018) and projections to

2020

Source: IOM/UNHCR portal for monitoring the Venezuelan situation by R4V https://r4v.info/es/situations/platform); Bahar y Barrios 2018
(https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/12/10/how-many-more-migrants-and-refugees-can-we-expect-out-of-venezuela/)

In contrast to the linear projection, in the BI projection the number of migrants corresponds to

the number of people in the Venezuelan population in 2018 (projected in 2011) with

insufficient means to cover their basic nutritional needs. The forecast does not expressly
provide a specific time frame; however, the authors have specified that it is a medium-term

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projection that could materialize by the end of 2020.

Both forecasts are large numbers and, considering that completely different methodologies

were used, strikingly similar. It should be noted that the United Nations projection refers only
to the Latin America and Caribbean region, and while the BI forecast is not confined to any

particular region. However, both projections have important limitations that are worth

highlighting.

42 Oppenheimer, Andres. Forecast of 8 million Venezuelan refugees should raise alarm bells across the Americas,
Miami Herald, December 14, 2018, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-
oppenheimer/article223103635.html.

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