Page 21 - Preliminary Report on the Venezuelan Migrant and Refugee Crisis in the Region
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Figure 3. Total number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees (2015-2018) and projections to

                                                            2020
































               Source: IOM/UNHCR portal for monitoring the Venezuelan situation by R4V https://r4v.info/es/situations/platform); Bahar y Barrios 2018
               (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/12/10/how-many-more-migrants-and-refugees-can-we-expect-out-of-venezuela/)

               In contrast to the linear projection, in the BI projection the number of migrants corresponds to

               the  number  of  people  in  the  Venezuelan  population  in  2018  (projected  in  2011)  with

               insufficient  means  to  cover  their  basic  nutritional  needs.  The  forecast  does  not  expressly
               provide a specific time frame; however, the authors have specified that it is a medium-term

                                                                   42
               projection that could materialize by the end of 2020.


               Both  forecasts  are  large  numbers  and,  considering  that  completely  different  methodologies

               were used, strikingly similar. It should be noted that the United Nations projection refers only
               to the Latin America and Caribbean region, and while the BI forecast is not confined to any

               particular  region.  However,  both  projections  have  important  limitations  that  are  worth

               highlighting.



               42  Oppenheimer, Andres. Forecast of 8 million Venezuelan refugees should raise alarm bells across the Americas,
               Miami Herald, December 14, 2018, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-
               oppenheimer/article223103635.html.



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